Bill Gross from Idealab did a (limited) research and found out that timing is the most important aspect for startups to succeed. It’s a downer since it’s a factor that we (= entrepreneurs) can’t control. However, a talented team will know how to execute well and ‘buy’ more time. In order to extend the ‘time frame’ as long as we need it to be, a strong business model is another important aspect. It will ensure that we will get to a cash flow positive state. This will enable us to run for years and wait for the right timing.
IMO, a great execution by passionate co-founders is the best predictor.
After that, a solid business model and a good idea are critical success factors.