Business, life

Second order thinking in practice

Some decisions seem like wins at first, but turn out to be losses over time. Second-order thinking is the ability to think about the consequences of one’s actions, and to consider how different courses of action can affect the long-term outcomes. It is a tool that will help you examine the long-term effects of your decisions.
In some cases, try to shift the timelines. Will this decision be impactful in 5 days? 4 weeks? 12 months? 10 years?

By doing this, you are looking at the larger picture and taking a longer-term view.
To do this well, you will need to look at both the direct and indirect consequences of your decisions

Second-order thinking involves taking into account the ripple effect of your decisions and how they can affect the future. It requires you to think beyond the immediate outcomes and consider the future implications of your current choices. This is especially important for business decisions, where a single decision can have lasting implications.

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life

The 2022 Year Summary – Books And Running

In the past few years (2019201820172016201520142013) I’ve been summarizing the year on sports events (Ironman, running, biking, snowboarding, etc.) and books.

Here are some of the books I’ve enjoyed most in 2022.

A thousand splendid suns by Khaled Hosseini – I first read it around 2010 or 2011, but early this year, I went back. It is a sad and powerful story of love, friendship, and the enduring human spirit. It is a testament to the resilience and strength of women and a moving depiction of the struggles and triumphs of life in Afghanistan. Yes. You will cry (just like I did).

“Where the Crawdads Sing” by Delia Owens – A beautifully written and moving story about the power of survival, the resilience of the human spirit, and the enduring mystery of human connection. It is a captivating and heartwarming tale that will stay with readers long after they finish the last page. Yep. There is a Netflix movie that you can watch but like the known phrase, “the book is much better!”

Numbers don’t lie by Vaclav Smil is an exploration of the key global trends shaping the world today and how they will impact the future. Smil, a renowned scientist and author (whom I need to thank Mr. Gates for the intro), examines a wide range of issues, including population growth, economic development, energy, resource use, and environmental change. He uses data and statistical analysis to provide a clear and nuanced view of the key trends shaping the world today and the implications of these trends for the future. Throughout the book, Smil discusses the challenges and opportunities presented by these trends and offers insights on navigating them. He also highlights the importance of addressing these trends in a holistic and integrated way and the need to consider their complex interactions and implications. This is a thought-provoking and engaging book that offers a fresh perspective on the key global trends shaping our world. It is a valuable resource for anyone interested in understanding the forces shaping the future and how we can prepare for and address them.

Noise by Daniel Kahneman explores the concept of “noise” in decision-making and how it can lead to flawed judgment and poor outcomes. Kahneman, a Nobel laureate in economics, argues that noise is a pervasive problem in decision-making and can lead to biased and irrational conclusions. He defines noise as random or unpredictable variations in judgment that can distort or obscure the underlying reality. Noise can come from various sources, including individual biases, the influence of emotions, and the complex and uncertain nature of the world. Through examples and case studies, Kahneman demonstrates how noise can lead to flawed judgment and poor outcomes in various contexts, including business, finance, and politics. He also offers practical strategies for reducing noise and improving decision-making, including using statistical analysis and developing more robust decision-making processes. It is a thought-provoking and insightful exploration of the role of noise in decision-making and how it can be addressed to improve judgment and outcomes.

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life, Sport

Favorites Books And (Virtual) Ironman 2020

It’s been a challenging year.
A year that caused lots of misery and the long term implications are still going to be discovered in the future. Nevertheless, I’m trying to focus on the hope we see just around the corner.

As for books and running/biking and swimming, it was all ‘virtual’ events. The Ironman race I was registered to do at Santa Rosa was first ‘pushed’ to ‘later this year’ and a after few months it was canceled.
As we learned during this year, it’s best to have patience (and endurance). Looking backward, there were quite a lot of new events that we managed to do. Both Strava and Zwift saw their platform taking an uplift. The new (or old) way to do a group ride: Zwift and Discord is quite cool. It won’t replace the real thing, but with the ‘new norm’, it’s quite a nice option.

Virtual Races

This year moved ‘everything’ into ‘virtual’. Sports events are just one example.
Since all the official races were canceled I did some virtual ones.

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life

Reading Recommendations From @naval

A list from @naval talks/podcasts and tweets.
It’s mainly for my personal usage when I’m buy new books (or ordering some from the library).

  • Poor Charlie’s Almanac: The Wit and Wisdom of Charles T. Munger. This one is the biggest book (for real) you will have in your library. Find a special and strong shelf for it.
  • Sapiens: A Brief History of Humankind by Yuval Noah Harari. I wrote about here in the past.
  • The Power of Now: A Guide to Spiritual Enlightenment by Eckhart Tolle (@EckhartTolle)
  • The Sovereign Individual: Mastering the Transition to the Information Age by James Dale Davidson
  • Incerto Series by Nassim Nicholas Taleb (@nntaleb): All 5 books are great but not an easy read. I had to re-read some parts in the books again and again and I’m still not sure I got to the bottom of the idea(s).
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life

Are You Doing COVID-19 Research?

“World War II was the defining moment of our parents’ generation. In a similar way, the COVID-19 pandemic—the first modern pandemic—will define this era.” – Bill Gates said it in his last post yesterday.

One of the interesting aspects of his observations is the need to collaborate our efforts on treatments, vaccines, testing and contact tracing.
We all want to help fight Covid-19. At JFrog we are helping developers be more productive with their work by harnessing the power of DevOps best practices (and tools).
Are you working on IoT to medical devices?
Here is one example on how to improve your process to ship better code in a faster way.

There are many more examples like that but bottom line, we want to help any organization that is fighting Covid-19.
You can apply here: https://jfrog.com/covid19/

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Business, life

Improve Your Decisions

I find the topic of decisions making to be a fascinating one.
In the past few years, I wrote about it several times and this is the post I keep returning as the ‘checklist’.
However, it’s great to have quick and simple rules that you can use.

Three rules to improve your decisions (that I ‘borrowed’ from @naval):

  • If you can’t decide, the answer is no – It might be a bit tricky in cases where you don’t have a Yes/No decision. However, the idea (IMHO) is that you should have a hunch on what will be the right path and if you can’t feel it, try to base the decision on the best data you can find.

  • If two equally difficult paths, choose the one more painful in the short term (pain avoidance is creating an illusion of equality) – This is a clever one, as it’s pointing you in the direction of
    ‘Easy choices → Hard life. Hard choices → Easy life’.
    I’m not sure, this rule will be valid in all cases, but even if it’s holding for 80% it’s a good one to remember.

  • Choose the path that leaves you calmer in the long term – Smart way to validate which is the better decision for a given challenge.

Also, it’s good to remember that
“It’s extremely hard to make good decisions in a poor environment.”

So do your best to improve the environment (e.g. company, friends) before taking important decisions.

The original tweet:

Have a great weekend.

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